Steel prices are experiencing significant volatility in 2025 as the market grapples with evolving trade policies, supply chain adjustments, and shifting global demand patterns. According to current market data, hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel is trading at $878 per ton as of June 2025, representing a 20.60% increase compared to the same period last year, while recent months have shown more mixed performance with prices declining 1.35% over the past month.
The current pricing landscape reflects several critical factors reshaping the North American steel market. Cold-rolled coil is currently assessed at $44.50 per hundredweight ($890 per short ton), while hot-dipped galvanized coil is priced at $43 per hundredweight ($860 per ton) as of late 2024, though these figures continue to fluctuate based on market conditions.
Trade Policy Driving Market Uncertainty
The most significant factor influencing 2025 steel pricing has been the expansion of tariff policies under the current administration. The renewed 25% steel tariffs on countries previously exempt, plus an additional 10% on Chinese-origin products, went into effect on March 12, 2025, fundamentally altering import dynamics.
Midwest hot-rolled steel futures prices have risen more than 21%, or $166 per ton, to $925 since the tariff revisions were announced. This dramatic increase reflects not just the direct impact of tariffs, but also market speculation about future supply availability and pricing stability.
The tariff expansion has created ripple effects throughout the manufacturing sector. The new metals tariffs subject nearly $150 billion worth of derivative products made from steel and aluminum to duties, affecting everything from automotive components to construction materials. Equipment manufacturers are already signaling price increases, with industry experts noting that “if it’s 8% more expensive to build tractors and combines in the U.S., some of that inevitably will be passed down to customers”.
Global Supply Dynamics and Chinese Export Pressures
China’s role in global steel markets continues to be a major price driver, though with evolving dynamics compared to previous years. Chinese steel exports reached 110 million tons in 2024, exceeding earlier projections of 100 million tonnes, with preliminary data suggesting this trend continues in Q1 2025.
The persistent oversupply situation globally is evidenced by global steel capacity utilization rates falling below 75% in early 2025, compared to 77.3% in Q4 2024. This oversupply, combined with China’s ongoing property sector challenges, continues to put pressure on international markets as Chinese producers redirect excess production to export markets.
However, trade defense measures are proliferating globally. Brazilian authorities are currently conducting anti-dumping investigations on imports of cold-rolled steel coil, hot-dipped galvanized steel, and other materials, while similar measures are being considered or implemented across Latin America and other regions.
Industry Demand Patterns and Market Outlook
Despite pricing volatility, certain sectors are showing signs of recovery that could support steel demand. The automotive sector, which represents a significant portion of sheet steel consumption, is expected to drive demand improvements. The automotive sector represents about 20-25% of overall steel demand, with particular exposure in galvanized and cold-rolled sheet products where automotive accounts for 40% of overall US sheet product output.
Industry analysts expect automotive production increases to provide crucial support for steel pricing, particularly in specialized products. Buyers of sheet and SBQ steel are looking to the automotive market to drive demand, with distributors targeting late first quarter or early second quarter 2025 for an uptick.
However, broader economic concerns remain. Market forecasts suggest steel prices may reach a trough in mid-2025, with the next pricing peak not expected until 2027, reflecting ongoing challenges in global demand recovery.
Regional Manufacturing and Nearshoring Effects
The ongoing trend toward nearshoring / onshoring and regional manufacturing is creating new demand patterns that may provide longer-term price support. Manufacturing capacity expansion in Mexico and Central America, driven by companies seeking to reduce dependence on Asian supply chains, is generating new demand for North American steel.
Mexican steelmaker TYASA has begun construction on a SBQ steel rolling mill with 400,000 tonnes per year capacity, set to start operations in Q3 2025, indicating confidence in regional demand growth despite potential tariff complications.
Inventory Dynamics and Supply Chain Adjustments
Unlike the inventory challenges of previous years, current market dynamics show different patterns. While specific 2025 inventory data varies by region, the overall trend shows more balanced inventory levels compared to the extreme surpluses seen in earlier periods, though this balance remains fragile given the rapid policy changes affecting trade flows.
Looking for precision sheet metal fabrication and CNC machining services?
As a vertically-integrated provider of precision metal solutions, EVS Metal continuously monitors steel market dynamics to provide maximum value to our customers. Our strategic approach to material procurement—combined with maintaining most manufacturing processes in-house across our four American facilities in New Jersey, Texas, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania—enables us to navigate market volatility while maintaining competitive pricing.
With over 30 years of experience in precision sheet metal fabrication, EVS Metal understands that successful project completion depends not just on current pricing, but on reliable supply chain management and operational expertise. Our multi-location presence in NJ, PA, TX and NH provides geographic flexibility for material sourcing and delivery, while our dock-to-stock vendor status with major customers demonstrates our commitment to quality and reliability.
Ready to learn more about how EVS Metal’s capabilities and market expertise can benefit your next project? Request a quote online or call (973) 839-4432 to discuss your precision metal fabrication needs.